Notes on engineering, trading, and general ideas. Trading posts are for education only and are not investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell equities.
High-bandwidth memory is a real, sold-out bottleneck, but the trade is not to chase Micron after a near-tenfold run into its highs. I own the bottleneck through Camtek, the cleaner inspection pick-and-shovel, and sell a defined-risk Micron put spread for income. Conviction is medium, rising to high on a pullback fill or a confirming June 24 print.
Copper has a genuine structural shortage, but it is a 2029-and-beyond story, and the metal is not cheap today. COMEX spot sits at the top of the analyst fair-value range, the refined market runs a widening surplus into 2027, and concentrate tightness is not yet reaching refined output. I therefore hold no position today. I arm conditional orders in Freeport-McMoRan equity plus a defined-risk January 2027 call spread, and I initiate only on a wash-out to fair value or a confirmed supply-transmission signal. Day-one committed capital is zero, downside is bounded, and conviction rises on the triggers in section 8.
SpaceX listed on June 12, 2026 under the ticker SPCX, and it is the hottest new name on the market. The obvious ways to play it are already in the price. The clean expression is relative value: a bullish Rocket Lab call spread against a bearish Destiny Tech100 put spread, both defined risk. A simulation calibrated to current realized volatility gives the pair a small positive expected value and a 77% win rate, with risk capped at the debit. I hold no directional SPCX position. The leveraged exchange-traded fund short that looks like a free decay harvest is negative expected value once borrow is paid, so I express any bearish view through defined-risk puts instead.
I initiate a market-neutral relative-value position for a higher-for-longer rate regime: long a relative-strength-confirmed quality-value basket (SCHD, XLP, IHF) against long-duration software longs (PLTR, ORCL, WCLD) expressed through defined-risk put spreads. The position is beta-neutral, carries positively, and bounds its downside to the option premium. Conviction is medium today and rises to high on a growth-deceleration signal.
A 2-4 week HG copper options memo using a defined-risk call spread to express the tariff-premium and supply-risk thesis while capping downside at the debit.
A conditional USD/JPY short needs a confirmed break below 157.50, lower U.S. yields, and follow-through toward 154-155 to become worth pressing.